We backed one favourite and three unders for the first week of finals for the Toyota 2019 AFL Premiership competition.
We had the head-to-head right for the first game, West Coast versus Essendon. This was the only instance in which we backed a favourite.
Admittedly, at the time we made our tips, the Eagles were favoured by 28.5 points, and while we lack the sophistication to bet lines, we mentioned the opinion that we did not think West Coast could cover.
Boy, we were wrong on that one. The 116 – 61 win, with its 55-point margin, was within two points of covering the line twice. Our dividend was just $122.
Essendon did sneak into finals, despite losing half of their games following their Round 12 bye. There were five clubs, Hawthorn, Port, Adelaide, and No. 15 Sydney, with better percentages.
After sneaking into finals, Essendon had to sneak out of Perth, as the only bomb they released was a dud.
In the other Elimination final, we backed GWS. The Giants were unders by 3.5-points, but they had home ground. Hard to imagine the Dogs being made favourites, but we had the intuition that they would be exposed as the frauds they were, despite their having beaten GWS by 61 in Round 22 on the same ground in Sydney. That one brought us a nice, fat $205.
In the first Qualifying final, we backed the club from Collingwood, despite the Geelong Cats being favoured by 4.5. This was the only match from the first round of finals that was close in the outcome. The 10-point, 61 – 51 win by the Pies made us richer by $210, enough to keep us in pies for the rest of the year. We temporarily regretted any bad things we may have said about Collingwood during the season, but that regret was short-lived.
Our miss was another instance where we backed the unders, the Brisbane Lions hosting the touring Richmond Tigers. Richmond were favoured by just 5.5 and we thought the Gabba would account for that.
We were mistaken, so that was the miss for the first round of finals. The Tigers erased all doubts as to which of the two was the better club.
Our figures for the first week of finals were, $400 staked, $300 of staked funds returned and $537 (before fees) in dividends.
Not bad, from just four games.
The bookies have made West Coast 3.5-point favourites over Geelong at MCG. Unlike certain SA teams, the Eagles can play at MCG, so we are making them our selection for the possible $180 on offer.
We have to take Brisbane over GWS, favoured by 8.5 as they are, mainly in order to see if the Lions’ feet will fit the glass slipper.