Our AFL fantasy punting from week two of the finals for the Toyota 2019 AFL Premiership competition not only left something to be desired, the lacked anything to be desired, as we were wrong by backing the West Coast Eagles and the Brisbane Lions.
There is some small, very small, comfort in that the games were close, unlike the three boilovers from the first week, but we would trade that comfort readily for the tiny dividends we could have enjoyed had we bet the exact opposite to what we did bet.
Brisbane going off in straight sets, losing two finals at the Gabba hurt our feelings immensely, but looking back with our perfect hindsight, the Lions’ home-and-away fixture had the makings of a cake walk, as is befitting for a club that finished 15th in 2018.
The competition and the tipping get harder as the number of remaining clubs decreases.
The other storyline ruined for us was the chance for West Coast to repeat as premiers.
The upcoming preliminary finals pose something of a quandary.
Richmond versus Geelong is one where we would prefer that neither win. By the same token, we hate to see either lose.
There is the Gary Ablett aspect to the first Preliminary final. We always like the old horse or the old guy, while we view Richmond as something of bullies, for winning the 2017 premiership and still have ways to improve their list. The figures we saw at Ladbrokes show Richmond heavy favourites, $1.35 versus $3.20 for the Cats and a line of +17.5 for Richmond.
We are taking the path of sentimentality and backing Geelong, but we doubt if we will feel sentimental if we collect the $320.
GWS is the last of the interstate clubs remaining, but we have to have our Pies, even though they are worth just $142 on a $100 wager. The line is +16.5 toward Collingwood.
Both Preliminary finals will be at MCG and our view is that if there is to be an upset, the second offers the better chance.