We made eight guesses for Round 19 of the Toyota 2019 AFL Premiership competition and got five right.
We avoided the game with Geelong in Sydney to play the Swans. Our intuition failed us, as we would have had the Cats and they won easily.
We were wrong on Collingwood v Richmond, St. Kilda v Melbourne and Fremantle v Western Bulldogs.
Our big note for the week was taking Carlton to beat Adelaide.
So, we had our fictional $800 staked. Only $500 of that came back to us. The bookie dividends summed up to $862, so before accounting for fees, our total for the week was $1,362.
Not bad. Aided by some generous bookie pricing and the correct upset pick in the Blues – Adelaide game.
Here are our guesses for Round 20. Remember, it is easy to do this when it is fantasy. No one should wager based on our guesses without acknowledging that none of our tips are recommendations or inducements to punt on AFL games.
North Melbourne are hosting Hawthorn. The Roos are mild, 1.5-point favourites, but the Hawks have to win to keep their finals hopes on life support. Give us the Hawks for $195.
Essendon are hosting Port at Marvel Stadium as 12.5-point favourites and we can almost taste the $150 the Bombers will drop on us.
It will only return $135, but GWS to beat the Swans seems a foregone conclusion.
Geelong are hosting Fremantle and the Cats are back on the prowl and worth $140 for a win.
Thanks, AFL, for Melbourne v Richmond at The G. The $120 we will collect for the lock win by the Tigers will be put to good use, such as kids’ advanced education, a worthy cause, or our beer collection.
Adelaide are hosting St. Kilda. After losing to Carlton, we will take the Crows for $137, mainly because the game is not in the Crows’ Melbourne graveyard.
Collingwood are hosting West Coast. The Magpies are worth only $110 for this game, but we have to take them for the win.
Brisbane will be poor hosts to Western Bulldogs and we take the Lions for $136.
Fairly slim pickings this round in terms of dividends and with the exception of the Roos and Hawks’ game, not much in the way of challenging picks.