Our favourite day of the week is when we own up to our guesses for the previous round of the Toyota 2019 AFL Premiership competition.
We were mediocre in Round 20, even though some of the matches seemed like locks.
We avoided West Coast v Carlton at Marvel Stadium, just to gain a respite from the Blues.
Of the other eight games, we had five right and three wrong.
Our figures, overlooking bookmakers fees were $500 returned stakes plus $638 in dividends, so while it wasn’t a bad week, neither was it a great one.
Them darn Cats losing to Fremantle was the big miss. Our others were the Roos – Hawks and Bombers – Port.
Here is how we see things for Round 21.
GWS are 19.5-point favourites over the Hawthorn Hawks at UNSW Canberra Oval. We have to take the Giants and already have an imaginary use for the imaginary $135 our pick will bring us.
The big question for the Melbourne v. Collingwood game at MCG is whether Nathan Buckley can field a side, but the Pies are favoured by 14.5, so our haul will be $142 for a Collingwood win.
Port are heavy, 17.5-point favourites in Adelaide with Sydney touring. We will take Port for $138.
Brisbane and Gold Coast will meet at the Gabba with the Lions favoured by 50.5. Really, bookies, do you truly need that half point of safety. The punt on Brisbane is only worth $106, so factoring in fees, this might be a break-even proposition at best, but we will take the $106, no matter how tempting the $900 for an upset appears.
Essendon v. Western Bulldogs is our coin flip match. The Bombers need the win to stay in the top eight and the Dogs need the win and some help to rise from 10th on the ladder, but we will play the percentage and take the favoured Bombers for the healthy $185 potential and Essendon win affords.
Odd to see St. Kilda favoured by 6.5, considering what Fremantle accomplished last round, so we will take the limb and back the Dockers for $218.
Geelong over the Roos requires no explanation, particularly when it is only worth $114 for our imaginary $100 punt.
Ditto Richmond v. Carlton. The Tigers for $114.
Give us West Coast over Adelaide at Optus for $126.